On to the good news. There is some hope for the future, as the Scotland U-21 side went alone at the top of Euro 2011 U-21 qualifying with a 4-0 road win over Azerbaijan today. After 5 matches, that puts the young lads at 4 wins and a loss, and a 2-point lead over Austria for the group. Well done to today’s goalscorers, Scott Arfield, Jamie Murphy (x2) and Rory Loy.

The U-21s are out of qualifying action until March, and have 3 matches remaining including the group’s final game in September, at home to Austria, which might very well decide the group.

Please keep the campaign alive, boys. There is precious little else to cheer about right now for a Scotland fan, and that looks nothing like changing anytime soon.

In a way, I wish it wasn’t so close. Though it hurt in a very different way two matches ago, when we were destroyed in Oslo 4-0, I truly believe that there is no loss as painful as one that could have been a win, and it’s damned hard to enjoy a valiant defeat. If we would have been outplayed, outmatched, as I frankly expected us to be, that would be one thing. But we weren’t. We met the third-ranked team in the world, the mighty Oranje, and we played with them. We didn’t let their supremely talented midfield boss us, we didn’t let their ridiculously deep squad of strikers beat us early, the way many expected them to. In what I consider the strongest performance of the George Burley era, we matched up well with one of the best sides in the world.

It may have been the best match of George Burley’s reign, but it will certainly be the last. The SFA has made no secret of the fact that the former Hearts gaffer had exactly one job requirement – qualify for the World Cup. This was no group of death like in Euro 2008. Aside from the Netherlands, we drew Norway, Macedonia and Iceland, teams that Scotland should handle, and that for the most part, we didn’t.

I’m going to hate myself for saying this … in fact I already do. We missed Kris Boyd today. We created chances, and as much as I would have loved to have seen the footwork of James McFadden on display today, he was not what we were most missing. Fads, as much as I love him, is not a pure finisher. We created chance after chance, close in and in many cases with the keeper out of ideal position. What we needed was a poacher, a Pippo, or yes, a Boyd. We needed a player that gets goals when they are handed to him, and Kenny Miller is not that player. He has scored some important goals for his country, and I don’t take that away from him, but he has also missed sitters that still make my eyes hurt to think about. In a system that plays so often with one man up front, that man needs to be accurate, a finisher, and the lack of that is what cost us today’s match.

It’s worth considering for a moment, though, what went right today. Our midfield was strong, our defenders, including all 39 years of Davie Weir, resilient. David Marshall stepped up in goal huge, playing in what was without any doubt the most important match of his life with almost no notice when Craig Gordon failed a late fitness test. Marshall’s quick hands and great positioning were the foundation of our performance today, and he deserves a massive pat on the back. He’s had a rough time in a Scotland shirt, including the 4-0 loss in Norway, but he gained hugely in my book today. Thank you, David.

So, it’s a night for mourning. I will be in South Africa next year, and I am personally devastated that my beloved Scotland will not take the pitch. That will take some time to sink in. Soon will come a time for rebuilding. Burley is gone, no question of that. If a meeting hasn’t been called in Glasgow yet, it will be by the weekend. Who will take us forward, I don’t know. The next major tournament is Euro 2012, which seems right now like a decade away. For now, all we can do is lick our wounds, and resign ourselves to watching from home, as England and perhaps more of the home nations pack their things for South Africa. There will be more glory for Scotland, but not now. Mon the Scots.

The last time Scotland lost, in any match, by four goals: 18 February 2004, a friendly with Wales in Cardiff. 4-0.

The last time we lost a competitive match this badly: 19 November 2003, a Euro 2004 playoff with the Netherlands. 6-0.

The last time we lost in Norway: 4 June 1963, a 4-3 friendly loss. That’s right – we haven’t lost in Oslo in 46 years. Until today.

There are a lot of excuses being thrown around today, but we deserve none of them. Yes, Gary Caldwell’s second yellow was soft, but it was a foul and a dumb one. That little bit of grab-shirt from Caldwell left us down to ten men just after the half-hour mark, and it was barely a blink of an eye before John Arne Riise put a free kick past almost all of the Scotland wall (excepting the real goal scorer, Scott Brown’s shin). I don’t care how they score it, it was an own goal for Brown, period.

After that, it was only downhill. To be honest, I don’t have the energy to go through the goals. I’m spent. Maybe in a few days, I’ll be more able to analyze this, but for now, all that matters is this: We have gone from second place in qualifying group 9 to third, and if the group ended today, we would not be going any further. We have two matches left, both at home, hosting Macedonia and then Holland. Frankly, the way we’ve been playing, the Dutch third team would be a challenge … and we can’t count on a win over Macedonia, even at home. Considering the group we drew, anything less than second place is a travesty … and as much as I’ve stuck by George Burley, through the bad times and the worse times, if we finish out of the World Cup playoff spot, he has to go. Scotland deserves better.

It was a double-header against Albania, starting with an away trip on 28 March. Chris Maguire from Aberdeen provided the only goal in our 1-0 win, but it was Barrow keeper Alan Martin who really starred. Nice to know there’s some up and coming talent between the sticks.

The return leg was played at Falkirk Stadium (Hampden was a bit booked with the Iceland match), and proved to be noticeably more lively. Maguire was again impressive for the young Scots, grabbing himself another goal and an assist, and contributing to most of the big moves in a huge 5-2 victory over that same Albanian side.

The pair of matches also saw the first U-21 caps for Rangers starlet John Fleck, who stayed off the scoreline but played well in his Scotland debuts.

Well done to the U-21s, who make the best possible start to their qualifying campaign. Wish we could say the same about the seniors, but there’s still hope there too.

Special thanks to Alan Hutton, who, like Gordon, hadn’t played in months. He looked like the Hutton of old, the Hutton that won the Scottish record sale to Spurs. His run to set McCormack up for the first goal was nothing short of brilliant. Welcome back, mate.

More on this later, but we’re back in second place in the group. We needed a win, and we got it.

Moving on. The match Wednesday is, realistically, the one that matters. Holland owns this group, and I conceded that basically when the draw was made. But Scotland should be the second-strongest team here, and anything less than a second-place finish, and a playoff for qualification, should frankly be George Burley’s head. That penalty goal for Holland might have been meaningless for the result of this game, but it was very meaningful in terms of putting Scotland behind Iceland on goal differential, and knocking us out of the second position. On Wednesday, in Glasgow, we need to beat Iceland, and if we can’t, we don’t deserve to go to South Africa.

As far as squad changes, it’s hard to say. Christophe Berra was clearly overcome by the challenge of opening his international career against Holland, and to be fair it was a bit of a harsh way to get his first start. Iceland would have been a far kinder way to start. Alan Hutton made an appearance, against expectations, and I hope he’ll be closer to form on Wednesday. In general, our back line was weak, and set the tone for a disappointing day. We won’t face this kind of quality on Wednesday, but we still have to better, and more solid, to get all the points safely and take that second-place spot. The danger man to watch will be Eiður Guðjohnsen , though with no Icelander scoring more than one goal from open play so far in the qualifiers, that’s a bit speculative.

Mon the Scots.

Then again …

It was Iceland. Ranked 107th by FIFA. This is the team that lost 3-0 to Liechtenstein in Euro 2008 qualifying. They are the weakest member of Group 9, and we expected to beat them. We needed to beat them.

There will be time for more analysis later, and more raining on our parade. It wasn’t a great game, but it wasn’t nearly as bad as Saturday’s poor effort in Macedonia. And we won, which is really all that matters. If we’re going to make our first World Cup since France 98, we’re going to have to win some ugly ones. One down.

Extra congratulations to Kirk Broadfoot on scoring in his first Scotland match. Well done, lad. And Barry Robson, you continue to have a hell of a fan in me – I look forward to seeing a lot of this from you in a Scotland shirt. After Steven McManus’ red card, drawing Iceland’s penalty with his blatant handball, we’re gonna need ourselves another captain for a few matches. But that’s a question for another day.

More later. Mon the Scots.

Possession
It might surprise a lot of people who watched the match to learn that we actually came out on top in terms of overall possession, taking 52% to Croatia’s 48%. I don’t have the statistics broken down by half, but for the first 20 minutes, the ball absolutely belonged to the visitors. Their midfield dominated from the opening whistle, and without Barry Ferguson to take control of the central midfield, we looked really lost. Darren Fletcher did a decent job in the middle, but we really did miss Barry early on. Later, we started winning more balls and putting together more passes, but Scott Brown, who has had a really disappointing few months for Celtic, continued to look really poor.

Central defense
The story of the first half, for me, was the amount of control that central defenders Stephen McManus and Gary Caldwell were able to maintain, despite Croatia’s early domination of the midfield. There were only four shots from Croatia in the first half, and all of them from outside of the penalty area. At that distance, the Scotland defense is well aware that Craig Gordon will save most shots. It took a lovely strike from Niko Kranjcar to score for the Croatians, and as disappointing as it was to go down at home so early, I really think the central defense held up well overall. I’m thrilled with Burley’s decision to replace Caldwell not with youngster Christophe Berra, who was on the bench looking for his first cap, but instead with veteran Russell Anderson. The Scotland back line does need Berra’s youth and speed, but at that particular moment, I really think Anderson was the better choice, and the result bore that out. Berra will get his shot.

Attack
I have given a lot of flack over the years to Kenny Miller. I’ve never been a big fan, and have held my head in my hands on countless occasions, watching him flick over the crossbar and begging for his removal. Still, he did a great job with the long ball from Steven Fletcher to score the lone goal for Scotland. Like Kris Boyd, Miller is a poacher. He may not create a lot of opportunities, the way that James McFadden can do, but he gets into the right places at the right times. That being said, we could have done far better on the attack. The struggling midfield can be blamed for the low number of opportunities, five shots to Croatia’s ten, but not for the finishing quality on those chances. Miller missed a header from just outside the six-yard box that he should have been able to bring down on target. Luckily, he made good just six minutes later with the goal. Shaun Maloney missed an early free kick, while Scott Brown’s effort early in the second half crossed the face of the goal harmlessly. We certainly missed McFadden on the day, and his creative touch would have complemented Miller and Boyd well.

Substitutions
As I said above, I think subbing Caldwell out for Anderson rather than Berra was a really smart move, despite recent form saying that Berra was the better choice. Overall, I was pretty happy with the substitutions. Subbing Gavin Rae for Steven Fletcher wasn’t much of a choice, because of the slight chest injury to Fletcher. Rae knew that he was on the roster due to the late dropouts, but he did relatively well with the half of play he was handed. Gary Naysmith was never going to play the entire match, and the 62nd minute substitution of James McEveley for him was a good one. In all the hubbub about young Fletcher and Berra, McEveley is the forgotten young defender on the squad. This was only the third cap for the 22-year-old left back, and though he might be considered lucky to be on the squad since defending for Derby County isn’t exactly a feather in your cap, he is clearly part of the future plans for Burley’s Scotland squad. Scott Brown could have taken off even earlier, and as I’ve said, was a real disappointment. There’s been talk of the squad being built around him, and he needs to start stepping up if that’s going to be the case. It’s too bad that Gary Teale is the best we can muster to replace him, and it just shows how thin the squad is at the winger position. Left back and winger are very open positions on this team. I would have liked to have seen Kris Boyd a little earlier on for Shaun Maloney, who was pretty mediocre on the wing. Again, wingers, please send your resumes to Burley.

Overall
I’m actually hugely encouraged by this draw. We were missing our best striker, James McFadden, our captain, Barry Ferguson, and our most experienced player, Christian Dailly. We started a debutant at striker in Steven Fletcher, and Gary Teale was our only true winger. Still, we hung in there with a top-15 team on their way to the European Championships, a team that beat England twice in qualifying matches. Ferguson was badly missed in the midfield, and we sorely need a true winger to spread the ball wide, but Scotland did very well to draw this match, and even had a good chance to win it with Kris Boyd’s late shot on goal. Very encouraging stuff from the first match of the Burley era, and we’ll keep up with club form and team news as the club season comes to a close, in preparation for the May 30th trip to Prague to play the Czech Republic, another stern test. Just two matches left until World Cup qualifying begins, and I think we look like a very strong contender.